DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/19 10:51

   Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday Thursday; Corn Lower

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 
2 to 3 cents higher; wheat futures are 6 to 10 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 
2 to 3 cents higher; wheat futures are 6 to 10 cents higher. The U.S. stock 
market is weaker at midday with the S&P 15 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index 
is 20 points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is 
firmer with crude up 1.30 and natural gas is up .01. Livestock trade is mixed 
after early strength. Precious metals are mixed with gold 15.00 higher.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower in quiet midday action with the recent 
range continuing to hold and little fresh news beyond USDA Ag Outlook Forum 
numbers. USDA projected 94 million acres versus 98.8 million last year and 
carryout at 1.8 billion bushels (bb) compared to 2.127 bb this year. Ethanol 
margins should continue to support strong production runs in the short term. 
Weekly export sales on Friday are expected to show 750,000 to 1.0 million 
metric ton (mmt). Basis will likely see little near-term change. New-crop price 
ratios are edging toward soybeans, but not enough to seriously swing acres yet. 
On the March chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at $4.28 with 
support the lower Bollinger Band at $4.24, which we have tested Thursday 
morning.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents higher in quiet trade with oil continuing 
to lead the product complex with little fresh news. Meal is mixed and oil is 50 
to 60 points higher scoring fresh highs yet again. The Ag Outlook Forum had 
acres at 85 million, up from 81.8 million last year and carryout unchanged at 
355 million bushels (mb) with crush and exports increasing. Brazil harvest will 
roll along with some recent rains in Argentina helping set up the finish of the 
crop. Basis should show light improvement if shipping continues to improve. 
Weekly export sales are expected to be in the 400,000 to 600,000 metric ton 
range Friday. On the March chart, support is $10.97, where we find the 20-day 
moving average, with the fresh high at $11.44 as resistance.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 6 to 10 cents higher at midday with trade working to 
consolidate the move to top of the range with another set of fresh highs coming 
in for KC early on. The outlook forum had acres at 45.0 million versus 45.3 
million last year, and carryout flat at 931 mb. Weather for the Plains looks to 
stay warmer after the brief cool down with better moisture for the north. Matif 
wheat is solidly firmer as well. Weekly export sales are expected to be in the 
250,000 to 450,000 metric ton range Friday. On the KC March chart, support is 
the 20-day moving average at $5.38 that we bounced from with resistance the 
fresh high at $5.63 1/2.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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